Paul BoudreauThe GOP Field- A First Look
March 21st 2011 20:23
:
First Thoughts on 2012
Hi All You Party People (or independents as the case may be),
Happy Monday,
So that fine spring weather I alluded to yesterday has disappeared. Snow is on the ground once again in Ottawa. But I'm still confident that winter weather is almost behind us, so don't despair.
Today I'm going to take a very brief look at the Republican field of candidates for President. This is not going to be a comprehensive examination of each candidate, but rather a quick hit of my first impressions of each of the candidates (only one of whom has filed papers as an official candidate at this point) and my initial thoughts on whether they have what it takes to challenge the presumptive run of an incumbent President Obama.
Here we go, in no particular order other than how they pop into my head:
Newt Gingrich- Former Speaker of the House of Representatives and leader of the Republican Revolution of the '90's, Newt has attempted (relatively successfully) to re-brand himself as an anti-establishment candidate from his (recently relinquished) bully pulpit as a pundit at FOX News. His positives include the experience and gravitas that come with his role as a former Speaker, his following from Fox, and a depth of knowledge about many issues that he displays on a regular basis. On the flip side, his multiple marriages and subsequent infidelities will not play well with the religious base, his pandering to the TEA Party on many issues and history of Clinton baiting will turn off many independents and moderates, and he has long history of longwinded gaffes for both primary and general election opposition researchers to drag out and hit him with. To sum up, Newt's going to take a lot of reinventing and polishing to make a successful run.
John Hunstman Jr.- Recently retired Obama Ambassador to China and former governor of Utah. High on foreign policy/trade credo following his most recent job, Hunstman may be more of a VP/Secretary of State in waiting. His 2 major negatives, namely the Mormon issue (he is one, and evangelical Christians tend to be squeamish about Mormons) and his having worked for President Obama, would seem likely to preclude his making it through a crowded and potentially vitriolic primary season.
Ron Paul- Congressman, Libertarian and long time Conservative favourite, Rep. Paul's views include isolationism, getting rid of the Fed and cutting funding for the Military. The best way to describe his chances is that he's the Dennis Kucinich of the Right. Without the green tea. Enough said.
Mitt Romney- Former Governor of Massachusetts, son of former Governor of Michigan, Mormon. He's been around long enough (essentially runner up to John McCain in '08 primary) to have gotten by the Mormon issue with the base, has a ton of his own money to spend, and a reputation for being someone who is willing to work with Democrats. This makes him arguably the most electable member of the potential nominees. His ability to cross the aisle, as well as the resemblance of the state Health Care bill he passed to the Federal Affordable Care Act (aka Health Care Reform or Obamacare, as you prefer) present major negatives to the increasingly partisan, TEA Party oriented Republican base who will make up the vast majority of Primary voters. Despite this, I still see him as the favourite at this point, given his financial, organizational and general election appeal.
Rick Santorum- A socially conservative, TEA Party friendly former Senator from Pennsylvania, Santorum is another of the FOX News commentary team (along with Gingrich and a couple of others who I'll get to in a bit) who looks like taking a run at the Republican nomination. He is widely considered a partisan, vocal and strongly principled conservative. Though he lacks the name recognition of some of his better known opponents, his consistent conservative stance on both social and fiscal issues makes him an interesting dark-horse possibility in the race. Working against him is the aforementioned lack of general name recognition (compared to the Palins, Gingrichs and Romneys of the field) and the question of whether someone with such a long and defined record of policies that have questionable popular support among moderates (anti-abortion, pro-regulatory cuts, etc.) is electable in the general.
Michele Bachmann- She's attractive, loud and beloved by the Tea Party... and no, I'm not talking about Sarah Palin! Michele Bachmann, Member of Congress from Minnesota reportedly is considering the viability of a run for the 2012 nomination. While her base-bonafides are VERY strong (chair of the congressional TEA Party Caucus), she has shown herself to be gaffe prone and inflexible. Her decision to put out her own TEA Party response to the President's State of the Union Address this year (though hastily embraced by the establishment) brought questions of whether she is a team player, and also whether she cares more about the GOP or Michele Bachmann more. She has strong negatives in a general, and is not likely to win many moderate independents ore right leaning Democrats over. While she may show strong among TEA Party primary voters, she is unlikely to win the nomination based on her electability deficit. This may mean taking TEA Party votes from a more serious candidate, say a Rick Santorum or Newt, and giving a boost to a Romney candidacy as a long term effect. Her shoot (off the mouth) first, ask questions later, style will make the race more interesting though.
Haley Barbour- Governor of Mississippi. He's got several ticks beside his name for any Republican Nominee: Southern Governor... check. Social Conservative... Check. Gaffe Prone... Check. Barbour, like many potential players in this race, seems to be as likely to shoot himself in the foot as put the best one forward. His record as Governor is strong, supporting small business and managing the recovery of the BP spill in Mississippi, but he has had a number of embarrassing slip-ups appear over the last year or so. With low name recognition, and many of the initial stories about him drawing national attention negative, it may come to pass that by the time he becomes well known enough to be a serious candidate, he will be known for all the wrong reasons and be dead in the water before he even gets going. Still has the potential to win a lot of votes in the South as a popular favourite son candidate however, so he does have to potential to stay in the race until the later stages.
Sarah Palin- I could write several long posts about Palin. The former Alaska Governor, 2008 McCain VP pick and media darling (another of the FOX has a larger profile than any of the other potential candidates... which at this point in her career is not necessarily a positive thing. Her approach to 2012 has been odd (and prone to stumbling over self planted landmines) to say the least. She has shown herself to be a force in Republican primaries and elections (through the strong performance of her endorsees in the 2010 midterms, and the way she swayed numerous primaries to her TEA Party favourites), is able to draw copious amounts of media attention to her every musing and public statement despite refusing to talk to the mainstream media, is a FOX contributor, has her own (quasi) reality show. If you are aware that there will be an election in 2012, then it is likely that you know who Sarah Palin is. And that is proving to be a problem The more Palin people get, the more she goes from looking like a serious candidate to looking like a sideshow. From the moment she was plucked from relative obscurity in Alaska to be John McCain's running mate people have been questioning whether she had the gravitas, common sense, experience... basically name a quality... to be considered for higher office. The more she exposes herself, the less confidence Republicans seem to have in her ability to win an election, let alone govern. That being said, she is still the rock star of the race, and has the ability to draw huge numbers of her supporters to any event, raise a lot of money, and potentially win primaries on name recognition instead of organization. Her waffling over running is often cited as the main reason much of the rest of the field is waiting. Like her or not, Sarah Palin is going to continue to dominate the conversation about the GOP 2012 Primary until she decides not to run.
Tim Pawlenty- The Former Governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty probably has a lot of viable positives and policy background. The problem is that I do not really know them. And this is not really my problem. It is Tim Pawlenty's. In a crowded Republican field of strong (but flawed) candidates, being a successful two term mid-western Governor is not enough to make you stand out. Lacking the national platform of the FOXes, or the history of a Giuliani, Pawlenty is one of several candidates who's candidacy is actually suffering through the late start to this primary season. He needs to have debates and news coverage soon in order to begin building a national profile relative to his rivals. Speaking at CPAC and other conferences will not be enough to get his name out there.
Mike Huckabee- Social conservatives Heart Huckabee. Ok, that was not original at all. But seriously, this former Arkansas Governor is a TEA Party, and religious-social conservative favourite (as evidenced by his shock victory in Iowa in 2008). The major knock against his 2008 primary campaign is that he tried to ride a grassroots wave to the top without a national profile or organization to rival his opponents (a fact that was ultimately capitalized on by John McCain). While he hasn't been exactly proactive in trying to improve that situation this cycle (he is still sitting back and working for FOX News rather than getting into the pre-exploratory-thinking-hiri ng-researching phase that several of his opponents have been engaging in over the last month or two), his time at FOX and his use of his stature as fairly successful insurgent candidate in 2008 to expand his national profile since then have made him a formidable figure amongst the base. The question remains to be answered whether this will translate into a Palinesque advantage, but he should show well in Iowa again, making him an early front-runner, with a stronger chance to continue that momentum through later contests.
Mitch Daniels- The fiscally conservative Governor of Indiana seems to be leaning away from running. Much like Tim Pawlenty he lacks some of the national profile needed to mount a successful bid, but does enjoy both establishment and TEA Party support. If he decides to run he will likely be a strong candidate, but will need to begin soon in order to get his name into prominence in a big field of big names.
Herman Cain- The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza is the first person to have officially formed an exploratory committee. He is a conservative commentator in both radio and print, and a TEA Partier by nature. The odds against him are astronomical. He will not win the nomination.
Donald Trump- I left the Donald until last mostly because I was unsure whether or not to include him in a list of people I'm trying to consider as serious candidates for the Presidential nomination. His name recognition and business background would make him a formidable candidate in any election. The question is, after years of reality TV, commercials, and generally being a diva in the spotlight, would he be considered a serious candidate for either the nomination or the presidency? Could he satisfy social conservatives that his lifestyle (divorces and the like) can suit their strict criteria for acceptable behavior? I have no idea, but his entry into the race would make an already wild primary season into must watch political fare.
Ok, that's as far as I'm going to go today. My apologies to any other candidates who might be thinking of running. I've given you 13 here and don't really see Thune, Johnson or Giuliani going beyond the exploratory stage, if they even make it that far, so I think it's reasonable to stick with these 13. For now. I'll note any official entries as we go along, as well as try to give coverage to any other major developments in future posts.
UPDATE- What a day I picked to finish putting this post together. Tim Pawlenty has just announced that he is forming an official Presidential Exploratory Committee. Does this mark the beginning of the GOP Primary season? Follow me here at www.apoliticalmind.com or here on twitter for more on the race and other items of interest.
Have a good afternoon,
PSRB
Happy Monday,
So that fine spring weather I alluded to yesterday has disappeared. Snow is on the ground once again in Ottawa. But I'm still confident that winter weather is almost behind us, so don't despair.
Today I'm going to take a very brief look at the Republican field of candidates for President. This is not going to be a comprehensive examination of each candidate, but rather a quick hit of my first impressions of each of the candidates (only one of whom has filed papers as an official candidate at this point) and my initial thoughts on whether they have what it takes to challenge the presumptive run of an incumbent President Obama.
Here we go, in no particular order other than how they pop into my head:
Newt Gingrich- Former Speaker of the House of Representatives and leader of the Republican Revolution of the '90's, Newt has attempted (relatively successfully) to re-brand himself as an anti-establishment candidate from his (recently relinquished) bully pulpit as a pundit at FOX News. His positives include the experience and gravitas that come with his role as a former Speaker, his following from Fox, and a depth of knowledge about many issues that he displays on a regular basis. On the flip side, his multiple marriages and subsequent infidelities will not play well with the religious base, his pandering to the TEA Party on many issues and history of Clinton baiting will turn off many independents and moderates, and he has long history of longwinded gaffes for both primary and general election opposition researchers to drag out and hit him with. To sum up, Newt's going to take a lot of reinventing and polishing to make a successful run.
John Hunstman Jr.- Recently retired Obama Ambassador to China and former governor of Utah. High on foreign policy/trade credo following his most recent job, Hunstman may be more of a VP/Secretary of State in waiting. His 2 major negatives, namely the Mormon issue (he is one, and evangelical Christians tend to be squeamish about Mormons) and his having worked for President Obama, would seem likely to preclude his making it through a crowded and potentially vitriolic primary season.
Ron Paul- Congressman, Libertarian and long time Conservative favourite, Rep. Paul's views include isolationism, getting rid of the Fed and cutting funding for the Military. The best way to describe his chances is that he's the Dennis Kucinich of the Right. Without the green tea. Enough said.
Mitt Romney- Former Governor of Massachusetts, son of former Governor of Michigan, Mormon. He's been around long enough (essentially runner up to John McCain in '08 primary) to have gotten by the Mormon issue with the base, has a ton of his own money to spend, and a reputation for being someone who is willing to work with Democrats. This makes him arguably the most electable member of the potential nominees. His ability to cross the aisle, as well as the resemblance of the state Health Care bill he passed to the Federal Affordable Care Act (aka Health Care Reform or Obamacare, as you prefer) present major negatives to the increasingly partisan, TEA Party oriented Republican base who will make up the vast majority of Primary voters. Despite this, I still see him as the favourite at this point, given his financial, organizational and general election appeal.
Rick Santorum- A socially conservative, TEA Party friendly former Senator from Pennsylvania, Santorum is another of the FOX News commentary team (along with Gingrich and a couple of others who I'll get to in a bit) who looks like taking a run at the Republican nomination. He is widely considered a partisan, vocal and strongly principled conservative. Though he lacks the name recognition of some of his better known opponents, his consistent conservative stance on both social and fiscal issues makes him an interesting dark-horse possibility in the race. Working against him is the aforementioned lack of general name recognition (compared to the Palins, Gingrichs and Romneys of the field) and the question of whether someone with such a long and defined record of policies that have questionable popular support among moderates (anti-abortion, pro-regulatory cuts, etc.) is electable in the general.
Michele Bachmann- She's attractive, loud and beloved by the Tea Party... and no, I'm not talking about Sarah Palin! Michele Bachmann, Member of Congress from Minnesota reportedly is considering the viability of a run for the 2012 nomination. While her base-bonafides are VERY strong (chair of the congressional TEA Party Caucus), she has shown herself to be gaffe prone and inflexible. Her decision to put out her own TEA Party response to the President's State of the Union Address this year (though hastily embraced by the establishment) brought questions of whether she is a team player, and also whether she cares more about the GOP or Michele Bachmann more. She has strong negatives in a general, and is not likely to win many moderate independents ore right leaning Democrats over. While she may show strong among TEA Party primary voters, she is unlikely to win the nomination based on her electability deficit. This may mean taking TEA Party votes from a more serious candidate, say a Rick Santorum or Newt, and giving a boost to a Romney candidacy as a long term effect. Her shoot (off the mouth) first, ask questions later, style will make the race more interesting though.
Haley Barbour- Governor of Mississippi. He's got several ticks beside his name for any Republican Nominee: Southern Governor... check. Social Conservative... Check. Gaffe Prone... Check. Barbour, like many potential players in this race, seems to be as likely to shoot himself in the foot as put the best one forward. His record as Governor is strong, supporting small business and managing the recovery of the BP spill in Mississippi, but he has had a number of embarrassing slip-ups appear over the last year or so. With low name recognition, and many of the initial stories about him drawing national attention negative, it may come to pass that by the time he becomes well known enough to be a serious candidate, he will be known for all the wrong reasons and be dead in the water before he even gets going. Still has the potential to win a lot of votes in the South as a popular favourite son candidate however, so he does have to potential to stay in the race until the later stages.
Sarah Palin- I could write several long posts about Palin. The former Alaska Governor, 2008 McCain VP pick and media darling (another of the FOX has a larger profile than any of the other potential candidates... which at this point in her career is not necessarily a positive thing. Her approach to 2012 has been odd (and prone to stumbling over self planted landmines) to say the least. She has shown herself to be a force in Republican primaries and elections (through the strong performance of her endorsees in the 2010 midterms, and the way she swayed numerous primaries to her TEA Party favourites), is able to draw copious amounts of media attention to her every musing and public statement despite refusing to talk to the mainstream media, is a FOX contributor, has her own (quasi) reality show. If you are aware that there will be an election in 2012, then it is likely that you know who Sarah Palin is. And that is proving to be a problem The more Palin people get, the more she goes from looking like a serious candidate to looking like a sideshow. From the moment she was plucked from relative obscurity in Alaska to be John McCain's running mate people have been questioning whether she had the gravitas, common sense, experience... basically name a quality... to be considered for higher office. The more she exposes herself, the less confidence Republicans seem to have in her ability to win an election, let alone govern. That being said, she is still the rock star of the race, and has the ability to draw huge numbers of her supporters to any event, raise a lot of money, and potentially win primaries on name recognition instead of organization. Her waffling over running is often cited as the main reason much of the rest of the field is waiting. Like her or not, Sarah Palin is going to continue to dominate the conversation about the GOP 2012 Primary until she decides not to run.
Tim Pawlenty- The Former Governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty probably has a lot of viable positives and policy background. The problem is that I do not really know them. And this is not really my problem. It is Tim Pawlenty's. In a crowded Republican field of strong (but flawed) candidates, being a successful two term mid-western Governor is not enough to make you stand out. Lacking the national platform of the FOXes, or the history of a Giuliani, Pawlenty is one of several candidates who's candidacy is actually suffering through the late start to this primary season. He needs to have debates and news coverage soon in order to begin building a national profile relative to his rivals. Speaking at CPAC and other conferences will not be enough to get his name out there.
Mike Huckabee- Social conservatives Heart Huckabee. Ok, that was not original at all. But seriously, this former Arkansas Governor is a TEA Party, and religious-social conservative favourite (as evidenced by his shock victory in Iowa in 2008). The major knock against his 2008 primary campaign is that he tried to ride a grassroots wave to the top without a national profile or organization to rival his opponents (a fact that was ultimately capitalized on by John McCain). While he hasn't been exactly proactive in trying to improve that situation this cycle (he is still sitting back and working for FOX News rather than getting into the pre-exploratory-thinking-hiri ng-researching phase that several of his opponents have been engaging in over the last month or two), his time at FOX and his use of his stature as fairly successful insurgent candidate in 2008 to expand his national profile since then have made him a formidable figure amongst the base. The question remains to be answered whether this will translate into a Palinesque advantage, but he should show well in Iowa again, making him an early front-runner, with a stronger chance to continue that momentum through later contests.
Mitch Daniels- The fiscally conservative Governor of Indiana seems to be leaning away from running. Much like Tim Pawlenty he lacks some of the national profile needed to mount a successful bid, but does enjoy both establishment and TEA Party support. If he decides to run he will likely be a strong candidate, but will need to begin soon in order to get his name into prominence in a big field of big names.
Herman Cain- The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza is the first person to have officially formed an exploratory committee. He is a conservative commentator in both radio and print, and a TEA Partier by nature. The odds against him are astronomical. He will not win the nomination.
Donald Trump- I left the Donald until last mostly because I was unsure whether or not to include him in a list of people I'm trying to consider as serious candidates for the Presidential nomination. His name recognition and business background would make him a formidable candidate in any election. The question is, after years of reality TV, commercials, and generally being a diva in the spotlight, would he be considered a serious candidate for either the nomination or the presidency? Could he satisfy social conservatives that his lifestyle (divorces and the like) can suit their strict criteria for acceptable behavior? I have no idea, but his entry into the race would make an already wild primary season into must watch political fare.
Ok, that's as far as I'm going to go today. My apologies to any other candidates who might be thinking of running. I've given you 13 here and don't really see Thune, Johnson or Giuliani going beyond the exploratory stage, if they even make it that far, so I think it's reasonable to stick with these 13. For now. I'll note any official entries as we go along, as well as try to give coverage to any other major developments in future posts.
UPDATE- What a day I picked to finish putting this post together. Tim Pawlenty has just announced that he is forming an official Presidential Exploratory Committee. Does this mark the beginning of the GOP Primary season? Follow me here at www.apoliticalmind.com or here on twitter for more on the race and other items of interest.
Have a good afternoon,
PSRB
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