Paul BoudreauLooking Ahead to 2013
May 26th 2011 20:17
:
That's Right... I Can See into the Future
G'day,
Well, we've hit the beginning of the end of the silly season where Washington politics is concerned (as far as that season can ever be considered to end... I mean people still use the words "President" and "Palin" in the same sentence without the obligatory "will never be elected" being attached, so there is some element of silliness still present) as the serious GOP presidential contenders line up in front of microphones and begin to repudiate (spelled with a "d", not an "f") past positions that seemed reasonable and useful at the time (say, if you were trying to get elected governor of a moderate state... Mitt and Tim, I'm looking at you here) but are potential liabilities if you are running for the nomination of the Great Reactionary Revolution of the Right, also known as the Republican nomination for President. I, for one, couldn't be happier. As much fun as it was going to be talking about Donald Trump, his hair and his mistresses, watching the MTV Rock the Vote edition of Cribs featuring Mike Huckabee and his FOX sponsored Florida Dreamhouse (foreclosure not included), the Haley Barbour-Joe Biden Gaffe-In special, and Mitch Daniels- ok, lets face it Mitch Daniels and fun don't really seem to go together- it's nice to think we may have hit a point where those of us watching this race unfold can actually talk about politics and policy. Until of course Sarah Palin does something newsworthy, at which point the silliness will return. But I digress.
(wow, 3 Palin shots in one paragraph... That's a personal best I think)
So, with the field forming, I'd like to tell you that the names who are out of the race may merely have saved themselves time and money. And not just because there can be only one nominee, and a reality TV star was never likely to be it. No, it is because I am clairvoyant and I am here to tell you that Barack Obama is going to be re-elected President of the United States of America. (Note: I am not actually clairvoyant) How can I be so sure when his approval ratings, according to the Real Clear Politics average of major polls puts his approval rating at a far from dominant 52.5%, even with the Bin Laden (good riddance to bad rubbish by the way) bump? Well it's very simple (and incredibly complex, but we'll get there). In 2008 Team Obama managed to put together a broad coalition of youth, labour, independents and of course, traditional Democrats in order to get the man elected in a hard fought campaign. For 2012, not only will they have these elements still leading the charge (with the labour side revitalized and angry following the battles in Wisconsin and other states around public employees contracts and rights to organize), but they have a new ally seemingly focused on doing whatever it can to get a Democratic President re-elected. This new friend is the Republican Party itself.
In the last month, since the 2011 budget battle (part the first), the Republican Party and it's Tea Party inspired freshman class of congress-people have been seemingly doing everything they can to draw a thick dark ideological line in the sand. From the language used over the budget fight, the beginnings of the debt-limit follies, the Trump-ed up birther nonsense to the Paul Ryan budget voted down by the Senate this week, the Republicans have seemingly put forth a great effort to define themselves and create policies which represent their views. Unfortunately for them, in their distillation of their principles in a search for ideological purity, they have managed to create a brew of social conservatism and libertarian fiscal policy that is far too strong for the average American to stomach. As E.J. Dionne puts it in today's Washington Post :
"Both the leaders and rank-and-file of the Republican Party devoutly believe Âthe people gave them a mandate last November to slash government, including that big-government health-care program known as Medicare. And never mind that many Republican candidates in 2010 criticized President ObamaÂs health-care law for reducing Medicare expenditures."
I've stated before that the biggest danger to the Republican Party was for it to find itself kowtowing to it's "increasingly radicalized base", or, in other words, to find itself moving further and further to the right as the country remained mainly in the centre. This has seemed to be the way that the GOP has gone in the last month. The Ryan budget, aside from its well documented ridiculous assertions (i.e. achieving a 2.8% unemployment rate by 2021), lays out in bare, undiluted majesty the right-wing's prescription for the world. Market first, government only if we have to, cut taxes on the rich, the market again, privatize entitlements, slash spending etc. And then some more of the market. Fairly simple and orthodox by and large, from a Libertarian point of view. The problem is that the public, as the Democrats learned through the debate on Health Care Reform, does not gives points for honestly stating what you believe. They do however tend to get angry when you talk about cutting grandma's Medicare benefits. On Tuesday, in a special election in a Republican leaning district in upstate New York (which John McCain won in '08 by 6%), Democrat Kahy Hochul won after the race became an unofficial referendum on the Ryan plan.
So, what does this mean for 2012 (and beyond)? Well dear readers, my crystal ball tells me that a combination of several factors is going to lead to the third in a series of wave elections (although you could argue that the '06 midterms, with the Democratic gains in the House, was the first one, making 2012 the fourth). First, the Obama team is good. Very good. I highly recommend reading the book Game Change, by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, which details just how good they are. They are not going to be out-messaged, out-spent or out-stumped by anyone. And their guy has something of a following. Though he was unable to change the course of the 2010 election, 2012 will see at least a partial return of the Obama coattails that pulled so many Democrats into office in 2008.
Secondly, Republican Governors are doing everything they can to steal the thunder out from under their federal counterparts. From Wisconsin to Florida to Arizona to Ohio, GOP state level officials have moved rapidly to the right in policy matters, taking the national conversation with them. This, in turn, has angered and reinvigorated the Democratic grassroots and netroots, much of whose energy had been sapped by the inevitable cooling off that goes from campaigning to governing following 2008. Not only, therefore, are the GOP governors and state-legislators turning off independents and moderates with their partisan activities, they are energizing their opponents.
Third, there is the aforementioned Tea Party. The Tea Party, with its hard conservative ideology, has quickly come to spell out the litmus test where GOP nomination fights are concerned. The no new tax pledges, American Exceptionalism as religion, conservative social view etc. test that all federal level politicians must pass has become increasingly rigorous following the Tea Party's success at winning primaries (and yes, elections) in the last election cycle. However, as the broader electorate has gotten to see the Tea Party govern, and watched the changing face of Republican orthodoxy come to reflect their views, the revolution has lost some of its lustre. The mandate mentioned in the quote above by E.J. Dionne has evaporated quickly, if it was ever there at all, leaving a Republican party that increasingly appears out of touch with the needs and concerns of a majority of the country, and moving in the wrong direction.
All of this adds up to a huge opportunity for Democrats going forward. My crystal ball foresees another Obama Inauguration, with a dual Democratic house-senate majority applauding in the background. Can't tell you who's winning the World Series though. Cleveland maybe?
All right, that's it for today. Talk to you soon folks.
PSRB
Well, we've hit the beginning of the end of the silly season where Washington politics is concerned (as far as that season can ever be considered to end... I mean people still use the words "President" and "Palin" in the same sentence without the obligatory "will never be elected" being attached, so there is some element of silliness still present) as the serious GOP presidential contenders line up in front of microphones and begin to repudiate (spelled with a "d", not an "f") past positions that seemed reasonable and useful at the time (say, if you were trying to get elected governor of a moderate state... Mitt and Tim, I'm looking at you here) but are potential liabilities if you are running for the nomination of the Great Reactionary Revolution of the Right, also known as the Republican nomination for President. I, for one, couldn't be happier. As much fun as it was going to be talking about Donald Trump, his hair and his mistresses, watching the MTV Rock the Vote edition of Cribs featuring Mike Huckabee and his FOX sponsored Florida Dreamhouse (foreclosure not included), the Haley Barbour-Joe Biden Gaffe-In special, and Mitch Daniels- ok, lets face it Mitch Daniels and fun don't really seem to go together- it's nice to think we may have hit a point where those of us watching this race unfold can actually talk about politics and policy. Until of course Sarah Palin does something newsworthy, at which point the silliness will return. But I digress.
(wow, 3 Palin shots in one paragraph... That's a personal best I think)
So, with the field forming, I'd like to tell you that the names who are out of the race may merely have saved themselves time and money. And not just because there can be only one nominee, and a reality TV star was never likely to be it. No, it is because I am clairvoyant and I am here to tell you that Barack Obama is going to be re-elected President of the United States of America. (Note: I am not actually clairvoyant) How can I be so sure when his approval ratings, according to the Real Clear Politics average of major polls puts his approval rating at a far from dominant 52.5%, even with the Bin Laden (good riddance to bad rubbish by the way) bump? Well it's very simple (and incredibly complex, but we'll get there). In 2008 Team Obama managed to put together a broad coalition of youth, labour, independents and of course, traditional Democrats in order to get the man elected in a hard fought campaign. For 2012, not only will they have these elements still leading the charge (with the labour side revitalized and angry following the battles in Wisconsin and other states around public employees contracts and rights to organize), but they have a new ally seemingly focused on doing whatever it can to get a Democratic President re-elected. This new friend is the Republican Party itself.
In the last month, since the 2011 budget battle (part the first), the Republican Party and it's Tea Party inspired freshman class of congress-people have been seemingly doing everything they can to draw a thick dark ideological line in the sand. From the language used over the budget fight, the beginnings of the debt-limit follies, the Trump-ed up birther nonsense to the Paul Ryan budget voted down by the Senate this week, the Republicans have seemingly put forth a great effort to define themselves and create policies which represent their views. Unfortunately for them, in their distillation of their principles in a search for ideological purity, they have managed to create a brew of social conservatism and libertarian fiscal policy that is far too strong for the average American to stomach. As E.J. Dionne puts it in today's Washington Post :
"Both the leaders and rank-and-file of the Republican Party devoutly believe Âthe people gave them a mandate last November to slash government, including that big-government health-care program known as Medicare. And never mind that many Republican candidates in 2010 criticized President ObamaÂs health-care law for reducing Medicare expenditures."
I've stated before that the biggest danger to the Republican Party was for it to find itself kowtowing to it's "increasingly radicalized base", or, in other words, to find itself moving further and further to the right as the country remained mainly in the centre. This has seemed to be the way that the GOP has gone in the last month. The Ryan budget, aside from its well documented ridiculous assertions (i.e. achieving a 2.8% unemployment rate by 2021), lays out in bare, undiluted majesty the right-wing's prescription for the world. Market first, government only if we have to, cut taxes on the rich, the market again, privatize entitlements, slash spending etc. And then some more of the market. Fairly simple and orthodox by and large, from a Libertarian point of view. The problem is that the public, as the Democrats learned through the debate on Health Care Reform, does not gives points for honestly stating what you believe. They do however tend to get angry when you talk about cutting grandma's Medicare benefits. On Tuesday, in a special election in a Republican leaning district in upstate New York (which John McCain won in '08 by 6%), Democrat Kahy Hochul won after the race became an unofficial referendum on the Ryan plan.
So, what does this mean for 2012 (and beyond)? Well dear readers, my crystal ball tells me that a combination of several factors is going to lead to the third in a series of wave elections (although you could argue that the '06 midterms, with the Democratic gains in the House, was the first one, making 2012 the fourth). First, the Obama team is good. Very good. I highly recommend reading the book Game Change, by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, which details just how good they are. They are not going to be out-messaged, out-spent or out-stumped by anyone. And their guy has something of a following. Though he was unable to change the course of the 2010 election, 2012 will see at least a partial return of the Obama coattails that pulled so many Democrats into office in 2008.
Secondly, Republican Governors are doing everything they can to steal the thunder out from under their federal counterparts. From Wisconsin to Florida to Arizona to Ohio, GOP state level officials have moved rapidly to the right in policy matters, taking the national conversation with them. This, in turn, has angered and reinvigorated the Democratic grassroots and netroots, much of whose energy had been sapped by the inevitable cooling off that goes from campaigning to governing following 2008. Not only, therefore, are the GOP governors and state-legislators turning off independents and moderates with their partisan activities, they are energizing their opponents.
Third, there is the aforementioned Tea Party. The Tea Party, with its hard conservative ideology, has quickly come to spell out the litmus test where GOP nomination fights are concerned. The no new tax pledges, American Exceptionalism as religion, conservative social view etc. test that all federal level politicians must pass has become increasingly rigorous following the Tea Party's success at winning primaries (and yes, elections) in the last election cycle. However, as the broader electorate has gotten to see the Tea Party govern, and watched the changing face of Republican orthodoxy come to reflect their views, the revolution has lost some of its lustre. The mandate mentioned in the quote above by E.J. Dionne has evaporated quickly, if it was ever there at all, leaving a Republican party that increasingly appears out of touch with the needs and concerns of a majority of the country, and moving in the wrong direction.
All of this adds up to a huge opportunity for Democrats going forward. My crystal ball foresees another Obama Inauguration, with a dual Democratic house-senate majority applauding in the background. Can't tell you who's winning the World Series though. Cleveland maybe?
All right, that's it for today. Talk to you soon folks.
PSRB
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